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1) SLIDE #1 - TITLE SLIDE
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By:
Charles Rhodes, P.Eng., B.Sc., M.A.Sc., Ph.D.
Chief Engineer,
Xylene Power Ltd., FNR Power Ltd.
This presentation summarizes the climatic consequences of the
increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and the measures necessary
to sustainably mitigate fossil CO2 driven climate change.
In this context "to sustainably mitigate" means to prevent Earth's
climate becoming more adverse, not to make the climate better.
The present rate of fossil CO2 emissions is more than 20X the rate of
natural CO2 sequestration. Hence excess CO2 is accumulating in the
atmosphere and in ocean solution.
In this context "sequester" means to trap the carbon component of CO2
in a chemically and thermally stable solid that is suitable for long term
storage.
It is shown that failure to sufficiently limit fossil CO2
emissions will eventually lead to extinction of the human species
due to high temperatures or CO2 toxicity.
This presentation concludes that large scale deployment of
Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs) is essential for sustainable
mitigation of climate change.
FNRs require a core fuel component known as TRU, which can
be obtained by reprocessing used CANDU reactor fuel.
In this presentation It is assumed that the audience
understands both the Law of Conservation of Energy and
photon quantization of electromagnetic radiation.
This presentation is an enhancement of a presentation made to the
Ontario Society of Professional Engineers (OSPE) September 19, 2024
This presentation is available on-line at:
https://www.xylenepower.com/Nuclear%20Mitigation%20of%20Climate%20Change%20V2.htm
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2) SLIDE #2 - BASIC ASTROPHYSICS I
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a) Our main concern with repect to combustion of fossil fuels is the effectb)In order to reliably project future temperatures we need a simple
mathematical model that quantitatively accounts for known past atmosphere
and ocean temperature behavior.
c) Planet Earth is surrounded by the vacuum of space. Earth gains or
loses heat only by radiative energy transfer and by radioisotope decay;
d) Let H(t) be the total amount of heat contained by planet Earth at any time t.
e) Then: H(to) is the total amount of heat contained by planet Earth at time to.
f) The rate of change of Earth's heat content is [dH / dt];
g) Incident solar radiation flux S is radiation emitted by the sun that is incident on planet Earth;
h) The fraction of incident solar radiation flux S that is reflected away from Earth is A(T), where:
A(T) = [(reflected solar radiant power) / (incident solar radiant power)]
= (planetary albedo)
and
T = world average temperature;
i) Today A ~ 0.30
j) The fraction of incident solar radiation that is absorbed by planet Earth is:
(1 - A);
k) Planet Earth is continuously absorbing solar radiant energy at rate:
S (1 - A)
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3) SLIDE #3 - BASIC ASTROPHYSICS II
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l) Planet Earth continuously gains heat at rate D due to natural radio isotope decay.
m) Planet Earth continuously loses heat via far infrared radiation emitted
into deep space at rate:
E C T^4
where:
T = absolute temperature of Earth's thermal radiation emitting surface
C = physical constant
and
E = a value in the range
0 < E < 1
that is dependent on Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration.
n) Note that E ~ 1.0 for an ideal radiation absorbing black surface and
E ~ 0 for an ideal radiation reflecting surface.
o) Deep space is sufficiently cold (2.7 degrees K) that the radiation energy flux incident
on planet Earth from deep space is negligibly small.
p) The Law of Conservation of Energy gives:
(net rate of heat gain)
= (absorbed solar radiant power)
+ radioisotope decay heating power)
- (emitted thermal radiant power);
q) Thus the Law of Conservation of Energy becomes:
(dH / dt) = S (1 - A) + D - E C T^4
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4) SLIDE #4 - BASIC ASTROPHYSICS III
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r) This is the fundamental equation controlling climate change.
To a good approxination S, and D are constants, A is a function of world average temperature
and E is a function of atmospheric CO2 and other Green House Gas (GHG) concentrations.
s) At:
A = Ao, E = Eo, T = To = Tb, t = to and (dH / dt) = 0
or
S (1 - Ao) + D - Eo C To^4 = 0
t) To a good approximation the heat content H is given by:
H - Ho = K (T - To)
where K = (active thermal mass) X (heat capacity)
u) Hence:
dH / dT = [K dT / dt]
giving:
K (dT / dt) = S (1 - A) + D - E C T^4]
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5) SLIDE #5 - FIGURE 1 - EARTHSHINE
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Figure 1 - Reflected solar illumination from Earth (Earthshine)
as photographed from spacecraft Apollo 17, December 7, 1972
Original NASA image AS17-148-22727
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6) Notice that in the warm equatorial region there are few ice crystals resulting in lower local solar reflectivity (albedo = 0.1) and higher local solar power absorption whereas closer to the south pole the ice crystals are very dense causing higher local solar reflectivity (albedo = 0.5) and lower local solar power absorption. The reflected light is known as Earth Shine.
7) Recent Measurements of Earthshine give for the whole Earth:
A = [(reflected radiant power) / (incident solar radiant power)] = 0.294 t0 0.306,
where A is known as planetary albedo. Due to the seasonality and the wavelength range (0.3 um to 3 um) of Earthshine it is difficult to obtain a more accurate value of A over a short measurement period (2 years).
8) As is apparent in Figure 1 the albedo (reflected fraction of the incident solar radiation), is dependent on the fraction of Earth's surface that is covered by highly reflective ice. As the average lower atmosphere temperature gradually rises this ice will progressively melt starting at lower latitudes and gradually progressing toward higher latitudes.
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9)SLIDE #6 - PLANETARY ALBEDO CALCULATION
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Albedo is the solar reflectivity of planet Earth which reflectivity is primarily a function of
the temperature dependant properties of water and water vapor. Find planetary albedo
as a function of temperature T:
a) Ocean albedo = 0.05
b) Land albedo = 0.20
c) Ice and/or cloud albedo = 0.50
d) Land area = (1 / 3)
e) Ocean area = (2 / 3)
f) Planetary albedo with no ice or cloud:
(0.20) (1 / 3) + (0.05)(2 / 3) = 0.10
g) Planetary albedo with complete ice and cloud coverage = 0.50
h) If T < Ta then A = 0.50
i) If T > Tc then A = 0.1
j) For Ta < T < Tc:
A = 0.5 - [(T - Ta)/ (Tc - Ta)][0.4]
or
(1 - A) = 0.5 + [(T - Ta)/ (Tc - Ta)][0.4]
and
d(1 - A) / dT = + 0.4 / (Tc - Ta)
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10) SLIDE #7 - Figure 2 - Graph of (1 - A) vs T
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11) As shown graphically in Figure 2, at low temperatures (1 -A) = 0.5
and at high temperatures (1 - A) = 0.9.
12) The transition temperature where: A = Ao = 0.3, To = Tb occurs at:
(dH / dt) = 0 = S(1 - Ao) + D - Eo C To^4
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RADIANT THERMAL POWER
13) Any warm object will emit electromagnetic photons, which are tiny packets of electromagnetic energy. The mechanism of this photon formation is coupling between electromagnetic waves and molecular kinetic energy. Each photon propagates at the speed of light C and has a frequency F characteristic of its energy Ep.
14) This process is reversible. That is, an external source of photons can excite coupled molecules to higher energies. Thus an isolated object in a vacuum chamber will emit and absorb photons until its rate of radiant energy absorption equals its rate of radiant energy emission, at which point we say that the object is at the same temperature as is the surrounding vacuum chamber wall.
15) The temperature of a warm object suspended in a vacuum gradually approaches the temperature of its surroundings by exchange of thermal radiation energy (photons) with its surroundings. As an object's temperature decreases the center frequency of its emitted photon spectrum decreases and its rate of photon emission decreases.
16) The rate at which an object in a vacuum emits radiant heat is proportional to [E C T^4] where:
T = absolute temperature in degrees Kelvin
and
C = physical constant
E = a surface dependent factor where 0 < E < 1.
17) If the object's surface is shiny E is close to zero. If the object's surface is flat black, E is close to unity..
INFRARED RADIATION EMITTED BY PLANET EARTH
18) A spectrometer is an instrument that can graphically display and record emitted photon flux
intensity (photons / second) versus photon frequency.
19) Note that the area under a spectral curve is the net emitted radiant power.
20) We can tell a lot about what is going on in Earth's atmosphere by mounting a far infrared spectrometer on a high altitude balloon or a spacecraft and recording the actual net infrared photon spectrum emitted by planet Earth.
21) In late 1996 the spacecraft named Mars Global Surveyor recorded the far infrared spectrum of planet Earth. That data is shown in Figure 3.
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22) SLIDE #8 - FIGURE 3 1996 NET INFRARED EMISSION
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Figure 5 - November 1996 Thermal Emission Spectrum of Planet Earth
Source: Initial data from the Mars Global Surveyor thermal emission spectrometer experiment:
Observations of the Earth, Philip R. Christensen, John C. Pearl,
Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JE00637open_in_new
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23) Figure 3 shows an experimentally measured net thermal emission spectral curve and two theoretical Planck emission curves for planet Earth. A Planck curve is the theoretical infrared emission from an ideal black body at a particular temperature. Notice that as the temperature increases the peak in the Planck curve moves upward toward higher radiant intensity and to the right toward a higher average frequency. That behavior corresponds to our every day experience where the hotter an object is the more radiant heat that it emits and the higher is the average emission frequency.
24) In Figure 3 the horizontal axis, labelled Wavenumber, is the infrared photon frequency in Hz divided by the speed of light in cm / sec. The black line is a graph of the received infrared intensity as a function of wavenumber (frequency).
25) Due to the quantum mechanical properties of matter the area under a Planck curve and hence the corresponding thermal emission power takes the form:
C T^4
where T is the absolute temperature in degrees Kelvin and C is a constant.
26) The actual infrared power emitted by planet Earth is the area under the black line in Figure 3, which area is approximated by:
E C T^4
where:
0 < E < 1
27) The area under the black line is proportional to the total thermal infrared power emitted by Earth. In the middle of this graph is a large notch caused by CO2 in Earth's upper atmosphere. That notch is wider today because this data was acquired in 1996 and since then there has been further CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere.
28) At higher photon frequencies there is an obvious notch due to O3 and further to the right is a broad notch due to methane.
29) The immediate effect of GHG induced spectral notches is to reduce the area under the spectral curve which means a corresponding immediate reduction in E.
30) Thus:
E = (area under the experimental spectral curve) / (area under the Planck curve) for the same temperature.
31) For an ideal Planck curve E = 1 whereas a real emission curve has less area under the curve which is accounted for by a change in E. The change in area is in part caused by the presence of CO2 in Earth's upper atmosphere, although other Green House Gases such as ozone and methane also contribute to the change in area under the spectral curve.
32) For the purpose of this analysis we can broadly assert that increasing the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the area of the CO2 related notch in the thermal emission spectral curve which causes a reduction in E.
33) In June 2005 a high altitude (28 km) balloon recorded the higher resolution thermal infrared emission spectrum for planet Earth shown in Figure 6.
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34) SLIDE #9 - FIGURE 4 - 2005 EARTH THERMAL EMISSION SPECTRUM
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Figure 6 - June 2005 Earth Thermal Emission Spectrum
Data: FIRST Instrument, NASA Langley Research Center, Utah State University Space Dynamics Laboratory,
Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, The Far-infrared Earth, J. Harries, B. Carli, R. Rizzi,
C. Serio, M. Mlynczak, L. Palchetti, T. Maestri, H. Brindley, G. Masiello; First published: 08 November 2008
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007RG000233
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35) SLIDE #10 - LATENT HEAT OF FUSION OF WATER
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If 1 kg of frozen water (ice) initially at 0 degrees C is heated and gently stirred it remains at 0 degrees C until the entire ice mass melts and becomes liquid. The amount of heat required to execute this phase transition is known as the latent heat of fusion and is:
334 kJ / kg.
The number of water molecules in 1 kg of water is:
(1000 gm / kg) X (6.023 X 10^23 molecules / 18 gm) = 0.3346 X 10^26 molecules / kg
Thus the latent heat of fusion can be expressed as:
[334 kJ / kg] / [0.3346 X 10^26 molecules / kg] = 998.2 X 10^-26 kJ / molecule
Assume that while freezing water emits 1 infrared photon per molecule.
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36) SLIDE #11 -PHOTON EQUATIONS
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A photon's energy Ep is given by:
Ep = h F
where:
h = 6.626 X 10^-34 joule second = Planck constant.
and
F = photon frequency
Hence if the photon energy Ep is known the photon frequency F can be calculated.
If the molecular phase change is from water molecules initially at 0 degrees C to ice at zero degrees C the wave number resulting from the latent heat of fusion is:
F / C = Ep / (h C)
= [(998.2 X 10^-26 kJ / molecule) X (1 molecule / photon) X (1000J / kJ)]
/ [(6.626 X 10-34 J - s) X (2.997 X 10^10 cm / s)]
= [(998.2 X 10^-26) X (1000)] / [(6.626 X 10-34) X (2.997 X 10^10 cm)]
= 502.66 cm^-1
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BROAD EMISSION PEAK
37) Earth's infrared emission spectrum shows that the emission peak in the (F / C) range is at:
F / C = 503 cm^-1,
the expected photon wave number for freezing water droplets. Hence, the mechanism by which of most of Earth's emitted infrared photons are generated is water molecules in the lower atmosphere transitioning from liquid to ice.
38) At the instant of each phase transition the water molecules have bands of initial and final energies. Hence the emitted photons occupy a band of frequencies around the calculated emission peak.
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HEAT TRANSPORT PROCESS:
39) Solar energy absorbed by the ocean causes evaporation of ocean water.
40) Isolated water molecules (water vapor) have a lower molecular weight (H2O = 18) than either oxygen (O2 = 32) or nitrogen (N2 = 28) molecules so due to their relative buoyancy isolated H2O molecules tend to drift upward in Earth's atmosphere. On the way up they lose their latent heat of vaporization to other air molecules. At the cloud tops they emit photons that convey the latent heat of fusion of water toward outer space.
41) At the cloud tops the photon emitting water droplets become ice particles. The resulting snow flakes are denser than air and hence fall. As they fall they are reheated by other air molecules to become water droplets and are again conveyed upwards by other warmer air molecules and the cycle repeats. The water droplets/snow flakes fall to ground when there is insufficient solar energy to supply rising warm air to carry them up.
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THE EFFECT OF CO2 AND GREENHOUSE GASES
42) There is a further complication. Between the tops of clouds, where most of the emitted photons originate and deep space is Earth's upper atmophere which contains CO2 and other GHGs. Close to the middle of the H2O thermal emission spectrum is a CO2 related frequency band that reflects infrared radiation back toward Earth.
43) When photons pass through the CO2 and other greenhouse gases there are characteristic photon frequencies at which the gas molecules reflect incident photons back toward the radiation source. From the perspective of a distant spectrometer this back reflection produces notches on the photon emission spectrum seen by the spectrometer.
44) As is apparent from the thermal emission spectra, E is a weak function of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The effect of adding CO2 to the atmosphere is to reduce E.
45) Recall that:
dH / dt = S (1 - A) + D - E C T^4
46) Over dry land where (dH / dt) = 0, and the parameters S, A, D, and C are all constant, so that reducing E forces an increase in T.
47) Over the ocean where T is constant a reduction in E causes an increase in (dH / dt), which is a heat injection into the ocean.
48) Using an experimental far infrared emission spectrum recorded by a spacecraft one can calculate the corresponding spectrum for the special case of doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Doubling of the CO2 concentration with no change in albedo causes an increase in Earth dry ground surface temperature of about 3 degrees C. A further doubling of the CO2 concentration causes another 3 degrees C temperature increase.
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49) Planet Earth has existed for billions of years, during which time a near balance was reached between solar radiation absorption and infrared radiant power emission. Hence, prior to the industrial revolution (dH / dt) was close to zero. However, geologic records show that the world average temperature gradually oscillated over a range of about +/- 20 degrees C with a frequency of about 1 cycle per 100,000 years.
50) Recently there has been an increase in radiant energy absorption due to a decrease in planetary albedo (caused by glacier melting) and a decrease in radiant heat emission (due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration), both of which have contributed to net heat accumulation and a world average temperature increase.
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51) SLIDE #12 - NATURAL OSCILLATION</P>
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a)Recall that:
dH / dt = S (1 - A) + D - E C T^4
b)From above discussion, at high temperatures:
S (1 - A) = 0.9 S
c)From above discussion at low temperatures:
S (1 - A) = 0.5 S
d) It is convient to express this equation as:
(dH / dt) (1 / S) = (1 - A) + (D / S) - E (C / S) T^4
e) For convienience assume that D = 0
f) Plot (1 - A) versus T. On the same sheet plot E (C /S) T^4 versus T for various E values.
g) Note that:
dH / dt = 0 when:
(1 - A) + (D / S) = E (C / S) T^4
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52) SLIDE #13 - FIGURE 5 - GRAPH SHOWING NATURAL CLIMATE OSCILLATION
Figure 5 - Climate Graph
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53) SLIDE #14 - OSCILLATION EXPLANATION
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a) The initial operating point is on the left hand side of Figure 5 at the intersection of the left hand purple [E (C / S) T^4] versus T curve with the horizontal line (1- A) = 0.5.b) At this initial point net biomass decomposition causes a gradual increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration which reduces E. Hence the purple curve moves the operating point to the right along the horizontal line (1 - A)= 0.5
c) When the E value has decreased sufficiently that the operating point has reached the lower knee in the (1 - A) versus T curve there is a stable point switch and the operating point will start to move up the purple E (C / S) T^4 versus T curve until (1 - A) and T reach their maximum values at:
(1 - A) = 0.9, T = Tc.
During the increase in temperature CO2 will come out of solution further decreasing E and hence further increasing Tc.
d) At T = Tc net biomass formation will start gradually reducing the atmospheric CO2 concentration,increasing E until the purple
E (C / s) T^4 versus T curve reaches the upper knee in the (1 - A) versus temperature curve. During this period the operating point moves to the left along the (1 - A) = 0.9 horizontal line. At the upper knee in the (1 - A) versus T curve there is a stable point switch.
e)Then the operating point will gradually slide down the purple [E (C / S) T^4] versus T curve until T = Ta. During the drop in temperature CO2 goes into solution, reducing the atmospheric CO2 concentration,and hence further increasing E which further lowers Ta.
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54) SLIDE #15 - LARGE CO2 INJECTION
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Today (1 - A) = 0.7. On a large injection of CO2 E will suddenly drop causing the purple [E (C / S) T^4] versus T curve in Figure 5 to jump to the right, moving the stable operating point to Td where Td > Tc. From a practical perspective the only thing that can be done to mitigate the high temperature is to immediately stop further CO2 injection, so as to minimize the decrease in E and the rate of temperature increase (dT / dt).*********************************************************************************
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55) 
Graph: NOAA Climate.gov, Data:Luthi et al, 2008
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HISTORIC ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION OSCILLATION:
56) Analysis of air bubbles trapped in glacier ice cores, as graphed in Figure 1, shows that for at least 800,000 years prior to the year 1911 the atmospheric CO2 concentration remained in the range 170 ppm to 300 ppm, with a 1750 value of about 275 ppm.
57) For at least the 800,000 years prior to the year 1750, planet Earth experienced oscillating ocean temperatures and oscillating glaciations which were accompanied by atmospheric CO2 concentration oscillations between a low of 180 ppm and a high 280 ppm, with an average of about 230 ppm. The period of each complete major ocean temperature, glaciation and atmospheric CO2 concentration cycle was about 100,000 years. Positive feedback driving these oscillations was provided by ice cover driven changing planetary albedo and atmospheric CO2 concentration driven changing temperature. The upper CO2 concentration turn around points occurred at times of rapid net photosynthesis and and the lower CO2 concentration turn around points occurred at times of rapid biomatter decay.
58) Within each 100,000 year period there were CO2 concentration sub-oscillations known as Milankovitch cycles caused by disturbances in Earth's orbit and hence incident solar power due to proximity of other planets, particuarly Jupiter.
59) Note that the fastest historic rate at which natural processes net removed CO2 from the atmosphere was about:
100 ppm / 40,000 years = (1 / 400) ppm / year.
That rate is the sum of the rate at which atmospheric CO2 dissolves into ocean due to a decreasing ocean temperature, the rate of net biomass formation and the rate at which biomass sequesters CO2.
60) Up until about the year 1750 mankind's total combustion of fossil fuels was sufficiently small that natural proceessses could continuously sequester fossil CO2 as fast as mankind produced it.
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SLIDE #7
a) Define:
Tb = (Ta + Tc) / 2
b) Note that:
Ta < Tb < Tc
c) Recall that at T = Tb:
A = 0.5 - [(Tb - Ta)/ (Tc - Ta)][0.4]
= 0.5 - [((Tc / 2) - (Ta / 2))/ (Tc - Ta)][0.4]
= 0.5 - 0.2
= 0.3
d) Recall that at T = Tb:
dA / dT = - 0.4 / (Tc - Ta)
e) At T = Tb:
long term energy averaging gives:
dH / dt = S(1 - A) + D - E C T^4
= S (0.7) + D - E C Tb^4
= 0
or
E C Tb^4 = 0.7 S + D
f) At T = Tb:
d[dH / dt] / dT = - S( dA / dT) - 4 E C T^3
= S(0.4 )/ (Tc - Ta) - 4 E C Tb^3
> 0
in order to have a pair of semi-stable operating points.
g) Hence:
(Tc - Ta) < [0.4 S / 4 E C Tb^3]
< 0.1 S / E C Tb^3
< 0.1 S Tb/ [0.7 S + D]
To meet this condition:
Even if D = 0, (Tc - Ta) < (Tb / 7)
For D << S:
(Tc - Ta) = Tb / 7
Hence for Tb = 288 degrees K:
(Tc - Ta) = 41 degrees C
h) For T < Ta, dH / dt > 0
i) At T = Ta:
dH / dt = 0.5 S + D - E C Ta^4
Hence dH / dt switches sign from +ve to -ve as T rises past T = Ta
j) At T = Tc:
dH / dt = 0.9 S + D - E C Tc^4
k) For T > Tc, dH / dt < 0
Hence dH / dt switches signs from +ve to -ve as T rises past T = Tc.
l) SUMMARY:
Provided that:
(Tc - Ta) < Tb / 7
there are two semi-stable operating points T = Ta, E large and T = Tc, E small
Therefore this system supports two semi-stable points Ta and Tc where:
Tc - Ta < 41 degrees C.
The problem is that a large injection of CO2 may cause the system to jump from a semi-stable low temperature operating point Ta to a semi-stable high temperature operating point Tc where:
Tc - Ta >> a change in temperature due to infrared blocking.
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ICE AGE SEQUENCE Start at Ta. Low temperture biomatter decay increases CO2 concentration,Then operting point rises up to Tc. At this higher temperaature biomatter formation reduces the CO2 concentration. Then the operating point slides down thecurve back to Ta25) LARGE STEP INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION:
a) The serious problem faced by mankind today is unbridled combustion of fossil fuels that is increasing the CO2 concentration in Earth's atmosphere about 1000X faster than in the past, which is causing Earth's lower atmosphere temperature to increase. This increase in lower atmosphere temperature is melting Earth's reflective ice cover, which further decreases the planetary albedo and increases the fraction of the incident solar power absorbed by Earth, causing a further ocean temperature increase.
b) An important issue to be determined is the maximum size of the corresponding upward ocean temperature excursion.
c) As of 1750 the atmospheric CO2 concentration was about 275 ppm, about 45 ppm over the historic long term average of 230 ppm.
d) Today the atmospheric CO2 concentration deviation from its historic average is:
(425 ppm -230 ppm) = 195 ppm
By the year 2070 the projected atmospheric CO2 concentration above its long term average will likely be:
(550 ppm - 230 ppm) = 320 ppm.
e) A large CO2 injection into Earth's atmosphere causes a step
increment in rate of ocean heating. This ocean heating gradually melts ice causing
a corresponding rate of decrease in planetary albedo. In order
for this positive feedback process to stop
the ongoing CO2 injection into the atmosphere must first stop.
Then sufficient time must pass to allow the ocean temperature
to reach that of dry land allowing the corresponding decrease in
planetary albedo to stop.
f) However, the major problem is that mankind is continuing to produce
fossil CO2 more than 20X faster than natural processes limited by
photosynthesis can sequester CO2. Presently the atmospheric CO2
concentration is rising at:
2.5 ppm / year = 1000X
faster than the historic atmospheric maximum absorption rate of
(1 / 400) ppm / year. Hence, it is impossible to change the sign of:
[d(atmospheric CO2 Concentration) / dt]
until after the fossil CO2 injection rate into the atmosphere is
reduced to almost zero.
Absent such a fossil CO2 injection rate reduction:
[d(atmospheric CO2 concentration) / dt]
will remain positive and the ocean temperature will continue
to drift upwards until mankind is eliminated, in which case
the fossil CO2 injection process will stop, permitting photosynthesis
to eventually restore the normal atmospheric CO2 concentration.
g) Hence the ocean temperature will continue to increase
during the 50 or more years that it
will take to suppress fossil CO2 emissions.
Only then can net photosynthesis start to reduce the
atmospheric CO2 concentration and hence the ocean temperature. Based on
historical data it may take more than 100,000 years for net
photosynthesis plus ocean absorption to reduce Earth's
atmospheric CO2 concentration back to 275 ppm.
26) a)The temperature increase associated with CO2 driven infrared effects will be
amplified by the change in planetary albedo due to melting
of ice. With continued CO2 injection the temperature will continue to drift upwards until
the albedo saturates at 0.1, in which case the corresponding
temperature increase will be about 17.5 degrees C.
b) Once net photosynthesis exceeds fossil CO2 injection Earth will spontaneously
eventually (after 500,000 years) recover from a large CO2 injection.
c) If Earth becomes too hot for photosynthesis then:
[d(atmospheric CO2 concentrtion) / dt]
cannot change sign at the desired upper CO2 concentration turn around point and, like the planet Venus, Earth will be trapped in a high temperature excursion.
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EFFECT OF FOSSIL CO2 AND GHG INJECTION FIND RATE OF TEMPERATURE INCREASE
Recall that:
K (dT / dt) = [S (1 - A) + D - E C T^4]
At the stable state prior to a fossil CO2 injection:
dT / dt = 0
A = Ao
E = Eo
T = Tb = To
giving:
0 = S (1 - Ao) + D - Eo C To^4
Note that changing the ocean temperature T will quickly change the atmospheric CO2 concentration which will change E.
Injecting CO2 into the atmosphere will change E which over a long subsequent period of time will change the ocean temperature T
In general for Ta < T < Tc, after a fossil CO2 injection:
K (dT / dt) = S [1 - Ao -(dA / dT)(T - To)] + D - E C T^4
= - S [dA / dT] [T - To] + Eo C To^4 - E C T^4
E = Eo + Ex
where for an increased CO2 or GHG concentration:
Ex < 0
Hence:
K (dT / dt] = - S [dA / dT] [T - To] + Eo C To^4 - (Eo + Ex) C T^4
Immediately after a fossil CO2 step injection:
T ~ To
Ex < 0,
(dA / dT) < 0
so that:
dT / dt > 0.
After some time T rises enough that the last term dominates causing (dT / dt) to go to 0 at a high temperature.
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NUMERICAL EVALUATION:
Assume:
D = 0
Then:
Eo C To^4 = S (1 - Ao) = 0.7 S
Assume Ex = - .03 Eo
K (dT / dt] = - S [dA / dT] [T - To] + [Eo To^4 - (Eo + Ex) T^4]
= - S(dA / dt)[T - To] + [Eo C To^4 - (Eo + Ex)C(T - To + To)^4]
= - S(dA / dt)[T - To] + Eo C [To^4 - (T - To + To)^4] - Ex T^4]
(T - To + To)^4 = [(T - To)^4 + 4 (T - To)^3 To + 6 (T - To)^2 To^2 + 4 (T - To)To^3 + To^4]
K (dT / dt] = - S [dA / dT] [T - To] - Ex C T^4 + Eo C [ To^4 - (T - To +To)^4]
= - S [dA / dT] [T - To] - Ex C T^4 + Eo C [To^4 - [(T - To)^4 + 4 (T - To)^3 To + 6 (T - To)^2 To^2 + 4 (T - To)To^3 + To^4]]
= - S [dA / dT] [T - To] - Ex C T^4 - Eo C[(T - To)^4 + 4 (T - To)^3 To + 6(T - To)^2 To^2 + 4 (T - To)To^3]
~ - S [dA / dT] [T - To] - Ex C T^4 - EoC [4 (T - To)To^3]
= - S [dA / dT] [T - To] - Ex C T^4 - Eo C [4 (T - To)To^4 / To]
= - S [-.01][T - To] - Ex C T^4 - 0.7 S 4 (T - To)/ To
~ - Ex C T^4
Thus for Ta < T < Tc:
K (dT / dt) = - Ex C T^4
or
dT / T^4 = - (Ex C / K) dt
or
[[T^-3 / -3]|(T = T) - [T^-3 / -3]|(T = To)] = (- Ex C / K) (t - to)
(-1 / 3)((1 / T^3) - (1 / To^3)) = (- Ex C / K) (t - to)
or
(1 / To^3) - (1 / T^3) = [- 3 Ex C / K](t - to)
Note that for Ta < T < Tc and a particular fossil CO2 concentration in excess of the concentration at T = To the temperature rise (T - To) increases with increasing time.
K (dT / dt) = - Ex C T^4
= - (Ex / Eo) Eo C T^4
~ - (Ex / Eo)[ 0.7 S
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6) Climate change is related to net radiant energy flow determining matters such as changes in:
a) ocean temperature (stored heat),
b) ice cover (albedo, stored heat),
c) atmospheric CO2 concentration (infrared filtering, CO2 reservoir),
d) ocean dissolved CO2 concentration (CO2 reservoir),
e) biomass (short term carbon storage)
f) carbon sequestration (long term carbon storage).
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11) SLIDE #7 -INTRODUCTION
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CONSEQUENCES OF THE PRESENT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION
| extreme high dry bulb temperatures | prolonged drought | |
| uncontrolled wild fires | insect infestations | |
| winter ice road failure | permafrost melting | |
| loss of seasonal snow packs | lack of summer irrigation water | |
| flash floods | violent storms | |
| sea level rise | fish stock collapse | |
| high wet bulb temperatures | uncontrolled human migration | |
| eventual CO2 toxicity |
UNCONTROLLED HUMAN MIGRATION
There is already uncontrolled human migration away from low elevation
tropical countries and toward higher elevation temperate countries.
Each human migrant stresses existing accommodation, infrastructure
and public services.
POLITICAL PROCRASTINATION:
Political leaders who fail to take climate change mitigation seriously have already,
squandered Earth's former good climate. A fossil carbon tax is essential, but it
provides little climate benefit if consumers cannot economically access dependable
clean power.
Failure to mitigate climate change will eventually lead to a climate similar to
that during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 56 million years ago. The
adverse climate during the PETM caused thermal extinction of large land animals.
The isotope record left by past climatic events shows that planet Earth takes
over 200,000 years to naturally spontaneously recover from PETM like climate events.
There must be much better public appreciation of the scope of the measures
necessary to mitigate CO2 driven climate change.
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22) PROCESSES INVOLVED IN CLIMATIC OSCILLATION:
a) Temperature-Dissolved CO2 Connection:
As the ocean temperature rises from 0 degrees C to 30 degrees C the amount of CO2 in ocean solution drops from saturation (100%) at 0 degrees C to about 40% of saturation at 30 degrees C. Hence the atmospheric CO2 concentration rises.
As the ocean temperature falls from 30 degress C to 0 degrees C the amount of CO2 in the ocean solution increases from about 40% of saturation at 30 degrees C to saturation (100%) at 0 degrees C. Hence the atmospheric CO2 concentration falls.
Ref: The Solubility of CO2 in Water and Sea Water, Yuan-Hui Li and Tien-Fung Tsui, June 20, 1971.
Due to the non-linear CO2 solubility with temperature relationship this positive feedback diminishes at higher ocean temperatures corresponding to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
b) Temperature-Infrared Emission ConnectionA step addition to the atmospheric CO2 concentration causes a step increase in such photon back reflection/absorption and hence a step increase in ocean heating. The resulting ocean heating gradually raises the ocean temperature. The increase in ocean temperature causes more CO2 to come out of ocean solution and enter the atmosphere. This process provides delayed positive feedback to the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Due to infrared response and CO2 water solubility non-linearities this positive feedback diminishes at higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
c) Temperature-Albedo Connection:
As the ocean temperature gradually falls floating ice forms which increases the planetary albedo and hence reduces Earth's solar power absorption.
When the solar power absorption is below the level of radiative thermal emission the ocean temperature gradually falls providing delayed positive temperature feedback.
As the ocean temperature gradually rises floating ice melts which reduces the planetary albedo and hence increases solar power absorption.
When the solar power absorption is above the level of radiative thermal emission the ocean temperature gradually rises providing delayed positive temperature feedback.
d) When the atmospheric CO2 concentration is relatively high and ocean temperature is high photosynthesis rapidly reduces the atmospheric CO2 concentration, providing negative feedback to enable an upper CO2 concentration turnaround.
e) When the atmospheric CO2 concentration is relatively low and ocean temperature is low biomass decay rapidly increases the atmospheric CO2 concentration, providing negative feedback to enable a lower CO2 concentration turnaround. During this period a small fraction of the biomass decay is anaerobic, which forms fossil fuels.
f) When the ocean temperature is very low (< 0 degrees C) both photosynthesis and biomass decay stop. System is trapped in a low temperature state.
g) When the ocean temperature us very high (> 60 degrees C) both photosynthesis and normal biomass decay stop. Another form of biomas decay becomes dominant. System is trapped in a high temperature state.
h)Turn Around Point Limits
The planetary albedo can reasonably swing from 0.1 with no ice to 0.5 with extensive white cloud coverage.
The ocean temperature can reasonably swing from 0 deg C to 30 deg C.
The atmospheric CO2 concentration can reasonably swing from 180 ppm to 550 ppm.
i) Experimental data gathered during atmospheric nuclear bomb testing indicates that a step increment of radioactive CO2 (C-14) in the atmosphere diffuses into the ocean with an exponential time constant of 10 to 15 years. Hence for times much greater than 15 years the atmosphere and the ocean can be regarded as being in continuous equilibrium with each other with respect to CO2 concentration.
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23) SLIDE #13 - OSCILLATING CO2 CONCENTRATION SUMMARY:
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CO2 CYCLE SUMMARY:
a)Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentration:
Initially there is some biomass decay that provides an initial step
increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
The effect of a step increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is to cause
injection of heat into the ocean surface. This heat injection gradually melts floating ice,
decreasing Earth's planetary albedo. The decrease in planetary albedo causes
more solar heat absorption by Earth and hence a further increase in
ocean temperature. The delayed increase in ocean temperature causes CO2 to come out
of ocean solution and go into the atmosphere, causing a delayed further increase in the amospheric CO2
concentration.
This atmospheric CO2 concentration increase with positive feedback
continues until the heating slows due to its logarithmic dependence on
atmospheric CO2 concentration and because the available CO2 concentration in the
ocean water solution drops. Hence CO2 injection into the atmosphere
slows and the ocean temperature rises to match the dry land temperature,
which has been increased by the change in planetary albedo. The increase
in [d(1 - A)/ dt] becomes smaller due to albedo approaching its minimum value.
b) Upper Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Turn Around Point:
At the turnaround point the CO2 production rate is low and the
rate of depletion of atmospheric CO2 by
photosynthesis is high. As a consequence
[d(atmospheric CO2 concentration / dt]
switches sign from positive to negative.
c) Falling Atmospheric CO2 Concentration:
Photosynthesis will now act to gradually reduce the above normal
atmospheric CO2 concentration at a rate limited by net photosynthesis,
[d(ocean temperature) / dt]
and
carbon sequestration.
As the atmospheric CO2 concentration falls the emitted
infrared radiation power will exceed the absorbed solar power and the
ocean will start to gradually cool.
The atmospheric CO2 concentration will now steadily drop due to atmospheric CO2
dissolving back into ocean solution. Ice will start to reform, increasing
the planetary albedo A, further reducing the absorbed solar power.
d) Lower Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Turn Around Point:
Positive feedback from the change in albedo will now drive formation
of more ice. At an ocean temperature of 0 degrees C the flux of CO2 into ocean
solution will stop due to ocean saturation. Earth's surface becomes totally
covered by white cloud (A = 0.5) causing
[d[(1 - A)] / dt]
to diminish as the lower CO2 concentration turn around point is approached.
At this low temperature atmospheric CO2 supplied by biomass decay will dominate
CO2 absorbed by photosynthesis causing
[d(atmospheric CO2 concentration) / dt]
to change sign from negative to positive.
e) Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentration:
Rapid biomass decay will start increasing the atmospheric CO2
concentration causing gradual insertion of heat into the ocean. After sufficient time
and partly due to gradual surface dust accumulation, the
albedo of the ice will start to decrease causing ice melting and hence additional solar heat insertion, The
atmospheric CO2 concentration will gradually increase, and the oscillation will repeat.
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27) SLIDE #9 - FIGURE 2 - ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION COMPARED TO ANNUAL CO2 EMISSIONS (1751 -2022)
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Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Compared to Annual CO2 Emissions (1751 - 2022)
Graph: NOAA Climate.gov, Data: NOAA, ETHR, Our World in Data
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EARTH'S MODERN ATMOSPHERE:
28) In Figure 2 the blue line shows the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the black line shows CO2 emissions. During the 1950s the atmospheric CO2 concentration was about 315 ppm.
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29) SLIDE #10 - FIGURE 3 - ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION (1958 - 2023)
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Figure 3 - Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (1958 - 2023)
Graph: Scripps Institutionof Oceanography, Data: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory
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30)The graph in Figure 3 confirms the 315 ppm value for 1958 and shows that presently, in 2025, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is about 425 ppm and is rising at about 2.5 ppm per year. The recent data trend indicates that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will reach 550 ppm by 2070, twice its pre 1750 value of 275 ppm
31) If by magic all fossil fuel consumption was stopped today the time required for natural processes to restore the atmospheric CO2 concentration to its former value of 275 ppm is about:
(425 ppm - 275 ppm)/ [(1 / 400) ppm / year] = 400 X 150 year = 60,000 years.
32) Clearly any fossil CO2 injected into Earth's atmosphere by a civilization remains in the atmosphere for the life of that civilization.
33) By 1970, it was immediately obvious to an informed person that the continuing accumulation of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere would, within a few human generations, prevent continuing human existence on planet Earth. Quite apart from climate change, the CO2 concentration itself would eventually become toxic to humans.
34) It is well known from operating experience with submarines and manned spacecraft that in a closed system it is essential to continuously remove CO2 from air. Most such closed systems are designed to keep the CO2 concentration under 1000 ppm. At 10,000 ppm there are major human consequences and at 40,000 ppm there is 100% human mortality.
35) The right hand side of the graph 1n Figure 3 shows that in recent years mankind has totally failed to slow the rate of increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
36) Interpreting this data is simple. Prior to the industrial revolution mankind used very little fossil fuel and natural processes could sequester CO2 from the atmosphere as fast as mankind produced CO2 by combustion of fossil fuels (then primarily surface coal). However, today, mankind produces fossil CO2 at about:
(2.5 ppm / year) / [(1 / 400) ppm / year] = 1000X faster than natural processes can sequester it.
FACING REALITY
37) At this point it is necessary to point out that almost all government and fossil fuel industry claims with respect to projected reductions in CO2 emission rates are misleading NONSENSE. The only data that can be relied upon is actual third party atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements. Reducing the measured atmospheric CO2 concentration requires a sustained > 1000X reduction in the rate of fossil fuel extraction and combustion.
38) Building more fossil fuel infrastructure such as pipelines will not prevent further future CO2 emission nor will storing compressed CO2 underground. A fundamental problem is that CO2 is a very low energy state chemical compound, In order to change CO2 into any stable form or compound that is suitable for permanent sequestration requires additional energy.
39) Nature relies on solar energy conveyed via photosynthesis to provide the energy increment required for CO2 sequestration. However, trees provide little permanent CO2 sequestration because when they decay they usually release their accumulated trapped carbon back into the atmosphere.
40) The major long term natural CO2 removal processes are bio-matter accumulations that are trapped in lake and swamp bottoms and shell forming ocean plankton. The trapped bio-matter eventually anaerobically decays into fossil fuels. After death, Plankton shells sink to the bottom of the ocean where they become ocean bottom carbonate dust that eventually consolidates into carbonate rock. These processes are rate limited by sunlight which provides the energy increment required for CO2 sequestration.
41) After fossil CO2 emissions have totally stopped, natural processes will take many millennia to restore Earth's former good climate.
43) Solving the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration problem requires complete halting of fossil fuel extraction. Parties who claim otherwise are simply burying their heads in the sand. Moreover, it is not sufficient to simply displace our own use of fossil fuels. We will not achieve atmospheric CO2 concentration reduction and hence climate change mitigation unless we also stop fossil fuel extraction by less affluent parties in foreign lands. In this matter we must develop cost effective technologies for sustained complete fossil fuel displacement both at home and abroad. To plan for less is to plan to fail.
CHANGE IN PLANETARY ALBEDO;
56) This decrease in albedo caused by ice melting is a major threat to mankind.
57) When all the ice has melted the increase in lower atmosphere temperature due to a change in planetary albedo from the present value of 0.30 to a future value of 0.10 is 17.5 degrees C. That ocean temperature increase will cause a lethal wet bulb tmpperature for most large land animals that rely on evaporation of perspiration to prevent their body temperatures exceeding about 38 degrees C.
********************************************************
58) SLIDE #12 - MATH SLIDE - Albedo versus temperature
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CONSEQUENCE OF CHANGE IN ALBEDO
S = solar power flux incident on planet Earth;
A = Planetary albedo A;
S (1 – A) = solar power flux absorbed by planet Earth;
Planck showed that emitted thermal radiation power = [E C T^4]
and an individual photon's energy Ep is:
Ep = h F
where:
T = the absolute temperature in degrees kelvin
(E C) is a surface dependent factor that for planet Earth satisfies:
S (1 - A) ~ E C T^4
Thus for a change in A of -0.01:
[S (1 - 0.30)] / [S (1 - 0.29)] = E (Ta)^4 / E (Tb)^4
or
(0.7 / 0.71) = (Ta / Tb)^4
or
Tb / Ta = (0.71 / 0.7)^0.25
or
Tb - Ta = Ta [(0.71 / 0.7)^0.25 - 1]
= Ta [0.003552454]
For Ta = 270 degreees K:
(Tb - Ta) = +0.959 degrees C
Note that the temperature is very sensitive to the value of A.
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***************************************
59) SLIDE #13 - NO ICE
**************************************
As Earth warms its albedo will decrease
from about 0.30 to about 0.10. Thus:
[S (1 - 0.30)] / [S (1 - 0.10)] = E C (Ta)^4 /E C (Tb)^4
or
(0.7 / 0.9) = (Ta / Tb)^4
or
Tb / Ta = (0.9 / 0.7)^0.25
or
Tb - Ta = Ta [(0.9 / 0.7)^0.25 - 1]
= Ta [0.06484]
For Ta = 270 degreees K: (Tb - Ta) = 17.5 degrees C
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60) The parameters E and A are presently both decreasing driven by positive feedback. If we fail to stop this decrease the corresponding rise in Earth's surface temperature will doom all large land animals and many marine species.
61) About 56 million years ago, during a period known as the PETM (Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum), there was a large carbon injection into the atmosphere and the isotope record shows that all the ice melted.
62) Remember that the A = 29.7% figure was an average over the entire Earths surface. The local value of albedo varies widely from about 4% over open ocean to as much as 70% over dry land covered by fresh snow. In places such as Canada, Russia and the nordic countries, where there is seasonal snow cover for (1 / 3) to (2 /3) of each year, a small change in average temperature caused by CO2 results in a relatively large change in average local albedo. In Canada this effect increases the CO2 driven change in average temperature 2X to 3X, which has had huge consequences on permafrost melting, tree species insect infestations and forest fires.
63) Absent injection of fossil CO2 into the atmosphere, the parameters A and E exhibit the natural low level oscillation associated with ice age glaciation.
CO2 SUMMARY:
93) The coincidence of the CO2 infrared photon reflection/absorption frequency with the H2O water-ice transition photon emission frequency band causes the climate to be quite sensitive to the CO2 concentration in Earth's upper atmosphere. This situation is aggravated by the large change in solar radiation reflectivity between ice and water and by the fact that all natural processes for permanently removing CO2 from the atmosphere are slow as compared to the rate at which mankind is producing CO2 via combustion of fossil fuels.
94) The only long term solution to this problem, consistent with maintaining a large human population on Earth, is stopping ALL extraction and combustion of fossil fuels.
95) Let me summarize this whole matter bluntly. The atmospheric CO2 concentration is 425 ppm today. At 2.5 ppm per year it will reach 550 ppm in:
125 ppm / (2.5 ppm / year) = 50 years.
96) If present fossil fuel use trends continue that 2.5 ppm per year rise in CO2 concentration will over the next few decades gradually increase to about 5 ppm per year, reducing the CO2 concentration rise time to 550 ppm to about 33 years.
97) In Canada the effect of local albedo is to double or triple the temperature rise due to infrared effects. If you fail to act now, in about 33 years time the average temperature over much of Canada will be 6 to 9 degrees C higher than the preindustrial reference. If you think that we have a wildfire problem now, you have seen nothing yet.
OTHER CO2 EFFECTS:
98) There is another important CO2 effect that has received little explicit public recognition. When CO2 is added to the atmosphere over dry land the land surface temperature almost immediately rises to make the infrared (IR) power emission balance the solar power absorption. Hence there is little heat absorption by dry land.
99) However, when CO2 is added to the atmosphere over ocean water there is little immediate water temperature rise but there is ongoing heat absorption by the water equal to the difference between the solar radiant power flux and the infrared radiant power flux. This net heat absorption melts floating ice and leads to gradual ocean warming that in turn raises the wet bulb temperature and enables major ocean storms.
CONSEQUENCES:
100) In the near term a major consequence of the wet bulb temperature rise will be massive human migration from the tropics toward more temperate countries. Already the USA and Europe are not able to control immigration via their southern borders and the situation will become much worse during the decades to come.
101) In the tropics the ocean surface temperature is consistently well over 20 degrees C. At 35 degrees C people die because the humdity is so high that their bodies cannot cool by evaporating perspiration.
102) I remind you that desperate people do desperate things. From a moral perspective tropical residents believe that they have been wronged by the developed world's unbridled use of fossil fuels, so from their perspective you deserve whatever they do to you.
103) Whether or not the human species survives this century will depend on whether or not humans are smart enough to deploy enough fuel sustainable nuclear power capacity to stop the gradual heat accumulation by planet Earth before the ocean temperature becomes overwhelmingly too hot.
104) Based on present human behavior, I am not optimistic. Sustainable climate change mitigation is nowhere near the top of the political agenda. Too many people believe, perhaps for religious reasons, that humans can adapt to this climate change. These people do not understand the thermal physics, and if they continue to deny reality they and their followers are doomed.
FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY DENIAL:
105) By 1980 early thermal neutron nuclear power reactors had been field proven and around the world about 400 such power reactors were either committed or built with a total thermal output of about 1200 GWt.
106) Circa 1985 the fossil fuel industry realized that nuclear power was an existential threat to fossil fuel energy market share and attempted to make nuclear power economically unviable by lobbying governments in both Canada and the USA. This lobbying took the form of public scare tactics based on a false cumulative Linear No Threshold (LNT) biological risk model, unreasonable regulation of nuclear power, funding of political parties that promoted use of fossil fuels in preference to nuclear power and dissemination of falsehoods about climate change and nuclear power cost.
107) In response to the fossil fuel industry lobby, during the 1990s the USA adopted a pro-fossil fuel policy, in which parties who challenged that policy with contrary facts had their employment terminated. One of the worst offenders was Bill Clinton, who changed clean air laws and who terminated the highly successful multi-billion dollar US fast breeder reactor development program. Similar politics occurred in France. Today the main beneficiaries of that US development program are Russia, China and to a lesser extent, India.
108) In Canada the Harper government formed the Nuclear Waste Management Organization NWMO) which with generous public funding is blocking implementation of fuel efficient Fast Neutron Reactors in Canada.
THE NUCLEAR SOLUTION
109) Today world wide combustion of fossil fuels (natural gas, natural gas liquids, oil, coal) continuously produces about 21,000 GWt of heat. Wind and solar electricity generation contribute little to the world thermal power requirement. Due to emerging country expectations, a world wide dependable clean thermal power supply capacity of about 40,000 GWt will be required by the year 2070.
110) Present thermal neutron nuclear power reactors produce about 1400 GWt of heat. Even if tripling of that capacity is achieved by the year 2050, as envisaged by some present politicians, the total reactor thermal output will barely meet 15% of the 2050 thermal capacity requirement for fossil fuel displacement. There will be no climate mitigation. This is a reality that present politicians of almost all political stripes are unwilling to face.
111) There is also a nuclear fuel problem. Existing thermal neutron reactors harvest only 0.5% to 1% of the energy potentially available from natural uranium. The known harvestable natural uranium resource is only about 6 million tons. Present thermal neutron reactors use about 70,000 tons/ year of natural uranium. Sustainable supply of the thermal power necessary for climate mitigation requires much more energy efficient Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs) and repeated fuel reprocessing. For basic reasons related to reactor physics fuel sustainable reactors must convert the abundant fertile uranium isotope U-238 into the fissile plutonium isotope Pu-239. Existing prohibitions regarding breeding and use of plutonium must be abandoned. These prohibitions have seriously depleted the world Pu-239 inventory. That inventory shorage will become acute later this century.
112) It is critical to conserve Pu-239. It should not be intentionaly consumed in thermal neutron reactors and should not be buried as a component of used fuel waste.
113) Pu-239 is made by exposing U-238 to a free neutron flux. The Pu-239 production rate limitation is the size of the available neutron flux. Suitable neutron sources are CANDU reactors, Fast Neutron Reactors and Intense Neutron Generators. The natural uranium resource can be stretched by fueling CANDU reactors with used Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuel.
114) In terms of meeting the world clean power requirement in the near term there is a serious problem with the existing U-235 and Pu-239 inventories and the Pu-239 production rate. The power reactors that are both most efficient in use of the rare uranium isotope U-235 and most efficient at Pu-239 production are CANDU reactors that use heavy water for both cooling and neutron moderation. However, this reactor type is not as popular as are light water reactors (LWRs) due to a higher capital cost per kWe. Only parties that make long term energy supply plans recognize that CANDU reactors are 2X more natural uranium fuel efficient than LWRs and are 4X more efficient at production of TRU. TRU is a mix of elements with atomic numbers greater than 92 about half of which is Pu-239. TRU is a key component of Fast Neutron Reactor (FNR) core fuel.
115) A major benefit of repeated nuclear fuel reprocessing is elimination of long lived high atomic weight radio isotopes (TRU) from the nuclear fuel waste. The resulting nuclear fuel waste isotopes have lower atomic weights, are short lived and naturally decay away in less than 300 years.
116) This fuel breeding Fast Neutron Reactor (FNR) technology was initially developed in the USA and France during the period 1964 to 1994 and then was discarded due to exaggerated proliferation fears promoted by the fossil fuel industry lobby. As a result of more than 50 years of inaction it is projected that there will be a future life threatening shortage of Pu-239.
117) An important safety advantage of sodium cooled FNRs is that they operate at low pressure as compared to thermal neutron reactors that are cooled with high pressure water. At reactor operating temperatures sodium remains a safe low pressure liquid whereas water instantly flashes into high pressure steam.
118) The main safety issue with sodium is complete exclusion of both air and water. Ground water is excluded by siting the sodium pool above the lighest possible local water table. Precipitation and air are excluded by use of a rugged enclosure.
119) In order to finance construction of Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs), there must first be a certain source of FNR core fuel.
120) In Canada, the only practical source of TRU for FNR core fuel is reprocessing of used CANDU fuel. In Ontario, we have in storage 60,000 tonnes of used CANDU fuel, so there is nothing other than foolish government policy and regulation preventing us from reprocessing it to obtain FNR fuel.
121) The physics and chemistry of the required fuel recycling are well known. However, development of a safe fully automated hot nuclear fuel recycling facility of sufficient capacity to meet near term Canadian requirements will likely take 5 to 7 years from a standing start. The work complexity is comparable to automated production of lithium batteries for automobiles.
THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
122) Both fuel reprocessing and reactor construction require regulatory reform. The concept that private industry should finance development of complex new regulations with uncertain political approvals must be abandoned. In view of the developmental urgency we would be better off with engineered safety than with poorly implemented regulatory safety. Remember that many existing power reactors were built before the present regulatory framework existed. Responsible professional persons who are engineers are not stupid.
123) It is essential that government decisions relating to nuclear mitigation of climate change be made by technically fully informed, not by politicians who are guided by public opinion polls.
124) Simply displacing the existing fossil fuel use in Canada requires a total reactor capacity of about:
40,000,000 people X 10 kWt per person = 400 GWt.
125) If during the next 50 years, due to immigration from tropiccal countries, the Canadian population will likely double so the national clean power construction target becomes 800 GWt, or:
800 GWt / 50 years = 16 GWt / year
of which Ontario's share will be about:
(15 million / 40 million) X 16 GWt / year = 6 GWt / year = 2 GWe / year
This target is far beyond present Ontario Energy and Electrification Ministry planning which is only about 0.3 GWe / year.
At present we only have about 30 GWt of thermal reactor capacity in Ontario.
126) A present constraint on Canadian population growth is residential accommodation. The present national residential construction capacity is about 235,000 residential housing units per year, which is insufficient for the projected immigration rate of about 1,000,000 people per year.
ENGINEERING MATTERS
127) The combined capital requirements for nuclear power plants, electricity transmission and distribution expansion, buried district heating pipes, and water source heat pumps sufficient to serve both existing and new buildings are huge.
128) Preliminary engineering has shown that the largest practical reactor size suitable for urban installation for distributed district heating is about 1 GWt. The limiting factor is that it is impractical to install dedicated heating supply and return water mains larger than about four feet in diameter under most existing city streets.
129) A side elevation of a 1 GWt sodium cooled Fast Neutron Reactor is shown in Figure 7. Each such reactor can meet the entire energy needs of about 100,000 people.
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130)
SLIDE #18 - FIGURE 7 FNR Side Elevation
******************************
Figure 7 - 1 GWt FNR Side Elevation
Source: xylenepower.com
******************************************
131) This FNR features: an atmospheric pressure sodium pool, sodium fire suppression, passive setpoint temperature control, walk away safety, natural circulation of Na for long term reliability, a 3 m wide sodium guard band for escaping fast neutron absorption and sufficient natural circulation of the NaK heat transport fluid for fission product decay heat rejection.
132) The roof over the reactor space and perimeter walls are sufficiently robust to withstand the pressure difference caused by a major tornado directly overhead and to prevent penetration by man portable anti-tank weapons.
133) There are 8 heat exchange galleries outside the reactor space. Underneath the heat exchange galleries are spaces for argon storage bladders. These bladders allow constant pressure thermal expansion and contraction of the argon over the sodium pool.
134) The nuclear island has 1 m thick inner thermal wall and a 1 m thick reinforced concrete outer wall connected by radial shear walls. This structure should be sufficient to safely absorb a low angle aircraft impact.
135) As shown in Figure 8 the footprint of this reactor and its adjacent support equipment is about one city block.
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136) SLIDE #19 - FIGURE 8 FNR Site Plan
************************************
Figure 8 - FNR Site Plan
Source: xylenepower.com
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137) Figure 8 shows a central nuclear island, surrounded by a 10 m wide laneway. The nuclear island is pipe connected below grade to 8 turbo-generator halls and 4 on-site cooling towers. The district heating pipes allow additional heat disposal via remote heat exchangers and remote cooling towers. Note that, including 20 m wide perimeter roads, the minimum facility footprint is (154 m X 154 m).
138) Electrical switchgear is located above the turbo-generator halls. The steam condensers are located below the turbogenerators.
139) Four radial lanes provide truck access to the four nuclear island airlocks.
140) The 10 m wide laneway around the nuclear isand provides mobile crane access to the heat exchange galleries.
141) Support facilities for worker parking, worker lunch rooms, sub-assembly storage, material storage, warehouses, offices, asembly, operation and maintenance must be nearby and will cumulatively likely require the equivalent of another city block.
IMPLEMENTATION POLITICS
142) Due to the 30 past years of political procrastination, realizing the required FNR deployment rate will likely also require further investment in Intense Neutron Generators to meet near term core fuel TRU requirements.
143) The political thinking in other provinces is even more irrational than in Ontario. Recently Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, of which I am an alumnus, built an entire renewable energy facility with no provision for instructing students about sustainable nuclear power.
144) There is no simple solution to the matter of irrational anti-nuclear sentiment other than to force necessary changes in government. It is essential to change high school, college and university core curricula so that graduating students value and insist on rapid deployment of sustainable nuclear power. Then within few years their voting influence should be sufficient to force major public policy changes.
ELECTRICITY RATES
145) Motivating efficient use of clean energy by the public will require major changes in existing retail electricity rates and in wind and solar generator compensation. The public must learn that about 90% of clean electricity system costs are related to dependable generation capacity, not delivered energy. The public must also appreciate the need for a preponderance of large synchronous generators with sufficient moment of inertia for grid frequency stabilization and with sufficient capacity to enable grid black start.
146) Wind and solar electricity generation via asynchronous generators, without massive energy storage, does not provide either dependable capacity or grid frequency stabilization. However, wind and solar energy are suitable for limited applications where the electricity load can be dispatch controlled, such as production of hydrogen for conversion of biomass into synthetic liquid biofuels, production of the heavy water needed by CANDU reactors and production of the metallic sodium needed by FNRs.
147) Presently Ontario exports surplus clean electricity at about $0.01 / kWh instead of making surplus clean electricity supply capacity available to Ontario consumers for fossil fuel displacement and electrolytic production of hydrogen and sodium. This foolish policy must change. The fossil fuel companies will object to this price competition, but so be it. If fossil fuel companies want to improve their return-on-investment it is time for them to invest their ill-gotten gains into maximizing production of clean power.
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148) SLIDE #20 - CONCLUSIONS I
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The time available for implementation of climate change mitigation
measures is only a few decades. In addition to the cost of nuclear
power and electricity system capacity expansion the cost of managing
climate migrants must also be met.
Present federal government led climate change mitigation policies are not
founded in physics, are ineffective and block effective provincial remedial action.
A fossil carbon tax will be ineffective at climate change mitigation until
consumers have an economic and dependable clean energy alternative.
Addressing climate change requires engineering leadership:
a) Climate change is a much more serious threat to public safety
than hypothetical weapon proliferation or nuclear accidents;
b) Investment in new fossil fuel infrastructure must stop;
c) Fossil fuel suppliers that fail to invest in sustainable nuclear power
must be bankrupted irrespective of pension plan consequences;
d) Corrupt and/or technically incompetent government and utility
decision makers must be terminated;
e) Governments must be guided by independent professional engineers,
not public opinion or ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable) like
safety regulations.
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149) SLIDE #21 - CONCLUSIONS II SLIDE
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There must be:
f) Ongoing financial resource allocation sufficient for timely mitigation
of climate change;
g) Electricity retail billing that reflects dependable capacity costs;
h) Electricity generator financial compensation that reflects both:
dependable capacity and energy provided;
i) Effective use of surplus clean interruptible power for fossil
fuel displacement and electrolytic chemical separation;
j) Reprocessing of used CANDU reactor fuel to make
Fast Neutron Reactor (FNR) fuel;
k) Urban siting and deployment of low pressure FNRs;
l) Urban district heating and related planning,
building code and legislative changes;
m) Reprocessing of used FNR fuel;
n) Insolvency protection for nuclear assets.
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150) The choice faced by humans is binary. Either promptly accept all of these conditions
or accept near term human extinction.
151) My final comment is that the primary responsibility of professional engineers is ensuring public safety. In this respect it is essential for both PEO and OSPE to bring truth to public discourse regarding CO2 accumulation, planetary albedo, climate change and the nuclear requirements for sustained climate change mitigation.
152) The only technology that can sustainably mitigate CO2 driven climate change is fuel breeding Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs). The only technology that can economically provide the required FNR start fuel is heavy water cooled and moderated CANDU reactors. Every day and every dollar that are spent doing something else threatens the future existence of humanity.
153) Today in Canada we have a selfish fossil fuel industry that in effect controls federal government energy policy, we have a federal government that blocks essential reprocesing of used CANDU fuel and we have provincial governments that prefer to burn natural gas rather than invest in additional nuclear power capacity.
154) We should do all necessary to make mitigation of climate change with sustainable nuclear power a ballot box issue in coming elections.
155) Today engineers have a binary choice. They can either be a leaders who take effective action to mitigate climate change or they can fail to do so and become victims of thermal extinction. Half measures that only slow the rate of rise in the atmospheric CO2 concentration will only delay the extinction process.
156)Thank you for your attention.
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157) SLIDE #22 - QUESTIONS
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QUESTIONS?
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12) SLIDE #8 - BLUNT FACTS I
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a)i) For at least 800,000 years prior to the year 1750 Earth's atmospheric CO2
concentration naturally oscillated between 180 ppm and 280 ppm with a cycle period
of about 100,000 years;
ii) Until about the year 1750 natural processes sequestered fossil CO2 as fast as
mankind produced it;
iii) Circa 1750 the atmospheric CO2 concentration was about 275 ppm;
iv) Circa 1750 steam engines for pumping water enabled large scale mining of coal
below the local water table, allowing coal (a fossil fuel) to replace wood
(a non-fossil fuel) as the primary source of energy for cooking and comfort heating;
v) An atmospheric CO2 concentration > 230 ppm is essential for intense agriculture;
vi) Doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration with no change in planetary albedo
causes about a 3 degree C increase in atmospheric temperature. However,
historically the changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration were accompanied by
changes in ice cover and hence planetary albedo that caused changes in
temperature of ~ 20 degrees C;
vii) For good health humans need an atmospheric CO2 concentration < 1000 ppm;
viii) An atmospheric CO2 concentration of > 10,000 ppm causes humans
to gasp for fresh air;
ix) An atmospheric CO2 concentration of > 40,000 ppm is lethal for all humans.
b) CO2 is a very stable low energy state carbon compound. All methods of
sequestering fossil carbon from CO2 require additional energy.
c) During natural sequestration of fossil carbon addional energy is
provided by sunlight via photosynthesis;
d) Hence natural fossil carbon sequestration is rate limited by
available sunlight;
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13) SLIDE #9 - BLUNT FACTS II
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e) During the period 1750 to 2011 the atmospheric CO2 concentration rose
monotonically from 275 ppm to 300 ppm;
f) Today the atmospheric CO2 concentration is about 425 ppm and is
rising at about 2.5 ppm / year.
g) Today mankind is producing fossil CO2 more than 20X faster than
natural processes can sequester it.
h) If mankind continues to combust fossil fuels the human species will
become extinct, if not due to climate change, then due to CO2 toxicity.
i) The only route to continued existence of the human species is for mankind
to totally replace fossil fuel supplied energy with clean (non-fossil) energy.
j) After fossil fuel extraction is totally stopped it will likely take natural
processes more than 100,000 years to sequester the excess CO2 already in the
atmosphere and oceans.
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14) SLIDE #10 - BLUNT FACTS III
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k) Fossil fuels presently provide the world an average thermal power of
about 21,000 GWt.
l) The equivalent base load clean electricity generation capacity is about:
(21,000 GWt) X (1 GWe / 3 GWt) = 7000 GWe
m) Absent large amounts of efficient energy storage, due to AC electricity grid
stability requirements, only about 20% of this required average clean power::
(7000 GWe) X 0.20 = (1400 GWe)
can be supplied by intermittent renewable electricity generation;
n) In most jurisdictions seasonal energy storage is prohibitively expensive;
o) Most of the remaining required clean energy must come from nuclear power;
p) The limited natural uranium ore resource is insufficient for sustainable mitigation
of climate change using relatively inefficient light water cooled nuclear reactors;
q) Due to the limited natural uranium resource, low pressure sodium cooled breeding
Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs) with Pu-239 fissile and fuel reprocessing are required
to sustainably mitigate climate change;
r) The sustainable FNR power, and hence the future human population, is
limited by the Pu-239 inventory. Hence Pu-239 must not be irretrieveably
buried or intentionally consumed in thermal neutron reactors.
s) All new thermal neutron power reactors should be heavy water moderated and cooled
to maximize Pu-239 production and to minimize U-235 consumption per kWht of thermal
energy output.
t) Used nuclear fuel should be reprocessed to maximize Pu-239 recovery and to
reject fission products.
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15) SLIDE #11 - BLUNT FACTS IV
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u) The Pu-239 breeding capacity and inventory should be expanded as fast
as prudent engineering permits.
v) The public must be convinced that the use of Pu-239 for sustainable
mitigation of climate change is much more important than preventing production
of Pu-239 because it can potentially be used for making fission bombs.
w) Urban sited 1 GWt Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs), buried low temperature
district heating pipes and water source heat pumps at thermal loads are required
to economically meet the urban comfort heating requirement.
x) Due to lack of long term clean energy supply planning,later this
century there will not be enough Pu-239 to meet the projected human
requirements.
y) The energy system evolution must be done at a cost that people can
afford, implying that a lot of equipment, code and procedure
standardization is required.
z) Later this century it may be necessary to reduce the human population
to match the then available supply of dependable clean power.
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